In a free, fair and credible contest on September 21st, 2024, the following postulations are informed by the trajectory of elections in Nigeria and around the world with a very minimal margin of error.
Here, I tried to take a deep look at previous election results in various domain, the current strength of the various political parties and their key players like in every game where the quality of available players is significant, the overriding sentiments in the unique urban and rural settlements, and the forces of inhibition and fair play.
Edo South Senatorial District will remain the battleground in Edo 2024 as it houses 58 per cent of the entire Edo State voting population. The big winner here has minimum needs from the other two Senatorial Districts; hence, Godwin Obaseki of the PDP won in 2020 due to the insurmountable margin from the metropolis of Edo South Senatorial District. So, the emphasis of this analysis will be on Edo South.
First, let's take a closer look at the dynamics of the Edo North Senatorial District. The overwhelming influence of Senator Adams Oshiomhole since taking power in Edo State as Governor between 2008 to 2016 is still very potent. His influence has seen the APC dominating elections in the area in 2012, 2015, 2016, 2019, 2020 and most recently, 2023, where he not only won the Senatorial District to become a Senator, but produced the entire three House of Representatives seats for the district. The majority of the House of Assembly seats likewise.
Oshiomhole's old and recent past resistance to maintaining a lead in Edo North above 70 per cent have been the likes of Chief Dan Orbih, Late Chief Raymond Dokpesi, Rt. Hon. Phillip Shaibu, Rt. Hon. Kabiru Adjoto and a host of others. They have now migrated their support towards him ahead of the crucial Edo 2024 election. To say APC will win Edo North Senatorial District is an understatement; it is now a matter of possible percentage difference between the APC, PDP and LP as the current Speaker of the Edo State House of Assembly, Rt. Hon. Blessing Agbebaku and Barr. Pascal Ogbome, though strong forces, cannot make any meaningful difference.
Election pundits have predicted a landslide victory for the APC in the Etsako axis of Edo North and a reasonable dominance in other areas of Afemai, including Akoko-Edo and Owan, where you have the ranking members of the National Assembly of the APC stock like Rt. Hon. Julius Ihonvbere and Rt. Hon. Peter Akpatason who are expected to give a good account of their positions in the scheme of things and be better placed for future election ambitions. Add to the growing sentiment against Obaseki's administration's alleged betrayal of two Afemai's illustrious sons; Oshiomhole and Shaibu, Edo North may just be a disaster waiting to happen to the PDP with little room for the LP.
Since the demise of the political sage Chief Anthony Anenih, Edo Central, though the smallest and least populated of the three Senatorial Districts of Edo State, has encountered difficulty in enthroning a pathfinder to direct their common interest. Those who tried to wear the garment by themselves, like Chief Tom Ikhimi, are now too old and weak that their participation makes no significant impact.
So, you now have an Edo Central that is equally divided between the Progressives and the Democrats. On both sides of the divide are known opinion moulders and election deciders, making it too close to call. But from an outsider's perspective, the APC Candidate is the Senator Representing the District like an incumbent seeking a second term in office, and he is up against a conventional political newbie but a boardroom guru.
The campaign has been fierce here because they share the same Senatorial District. But while Okpebholo of the APC hails from a majority population of Uromi, Ighodalo of the PDP hails from a minority population of Ewohimi. It is also speculated that while Okpebholo can connect with locals in the Esan dialect, Ighodalo does so in English avoiding the initial mistake of using an interpreter. More so, Okpebholo of the APC seems to have a track record of projects executed before and, in the Senate, making his campaign more practical than abstract advertising of Ighodalo's competence.
These sentiments are expected to push votes in favour of APC in the District although not significant enough to cause an upset. The impact of other serving national legislators like Rt. Hon. Marcus Onobun of the PDP and Hon. Odianosen Okojie of the APC will be a remarkable reference as they will be working hard to keep their parties relevant in their domain ahead of their second-term ambition.
Related Articles
Yet, Okojie of the APC, in the company of his celebrity wife and screen goddess, Mercy Johnson Okojie, is taunted as the new champion of voter mobilisation in Esan Land following his "above the roof" victory to the House of Representatives. The pocket effects of politically potent Edo State House of Assembly Members in the areas will be an added advantage to Ighodalo of PDP as he has them in the majority.
I have kept my warnings to the APC in the last paragraphs of this article after predicting PDP's doom in Edo North and Central because I am sure most PDP supporters won't read beyond my first paragraph as they consider me to be an APC stalwart who will always put out publications in favour of my party, but for a very few that will deny themselves of such reading bias, they have a reason to be hopeful of victory in the coming election.
It is difficult to convince anyone that I am sometimes critical, particularly when it comes to the point of tackling reality, like the very clear reality of APC losing Oredo, Egor and Ikpoba-Okha Local Government Areas of Edo South, which happens to be the swing Local Government Areas of Edo State.
Without sounding immodest, the Benin City metropolis that houses the three Local Government Areas of Oredo, Egor and Ikpoba-Okha has been home to the PDP since 1999. Only the magnificent performance of Oshiomhole and the wave of the Obidient Movement could break it in 2012 and 2023 respectively. Today, the incumbent PDP Governor of the State, Godwin Obaseki, who is pushing for Ighodalo, is from Oredo; his defacto Secretary and Deputy Governorship Candidate, Osarodion Ogie, is from Ikpoba-Okha with quick reach to Egor of the same Federal Constituency.
Meanwhile, APC leaders in this area are lacklustre and see nothing new with defeat as it has become a culture. Most are paparazzi politicians who prefer to be noticed on campaign podiums than to be relevant in their domain. Except the APC Campaign Director-General, Senator Matthew Urhoghide, is offered a breathing space from the campaign to put his Oredo political home in order with real-time commitment from the likes of Dr. Omoregie Ogbeide-Ihama, Comr. Osakpanmwan Eriyo, Comrade Tony Adun and youthful enthusiast, APC will fall woefully again in Oredo.
Ikpoba-Okha seems worse for APC as Osarodion Ogie is homely with a visible track record of performance in his domain despite working in Obaseki's poorly performed administration. So, beating PDP here with the crop of divided leaders in Ikpoba-Okha APC is like waiting for mana to fall from heaven. Take it to the bank that, of the three visible political parties in the Benin metropolis, PDP ranks first, LP second and APC third, which is a dangerous projection for the APC. In short, the PDP is predicted to win the three Local Government Areas of Benin City, with APC putting up a good fight in Egor and coming far behind in Ikpoba-Okha and Oredo.
Contrary to the negative stand of the APC in the urban Edo South, the APC holds sway in the rural Edo South with a firm grip of Ovia South-west where the APC Deputy Governorship Candidate, Rt. Hon. Dennis Idahosa, is the serving member of the House of Representatives, joined by his former rival and now a pair, Hon. Omosede Igbinedion, a former Rep Member from Ovia North-east. The Ovia agenda, coupled with the APC's old record of victories, keeps the two Local Government Areas of Ovia within the APC.
The situation is the same with Orhionmwon and Uhunmwode Local Government Areas, where APC produced the Member of House of Representatives, Hon. Billy Osawaru, and continues to hold sway with a political tactician like Rt. Hon. Patrick Aisowieren and heavyweights like Dr. Pius Odubu and Dr. Osagie Ize-Iyamu. The plug-in of Hon. Charles Idahosa and the relentless effort of leaders like Mr. Osazee Imasogie, Prof. David Osifo, Dr. Samson Osagie, Dr. Washington Osifo and Amb. Austin Imafidon makes Uhunmwode very good for the APC.
In all honesty, following my initially stipulated parameters, APC will win Edo North with a margin never before obtained in any election in that Senatorial District. APC will also win Edo Central but with an insignificant margin. But PDP will win Edo South courtesy of Benin City, but what will not be fantastic for the party, unlike in 2020, is the margin of victory as the bandwagon effect of the "Torgba" of 2020 has disappeared, and a visible albatross, the Labour Party, will have their good share of the metropolitan votes like the APC.
This analysis is laced with the possibility of some changes, for or against the various political parties depending on the changing political dynamics, and the principle of "it is not over until it is over." But this publication is a Nostradamus view of what is to come, and any such doubts as to this prediction can be for the future reference of the author. May Edo succeed for the benefit of all and the continued reverence of The Omo N'Oba N'Edo Uku Akpolokpolo Oba of Benin now Oba Ewuare II. Oba Ghator Okpere!"
