The world of politics is often masked with a cutthroat reality. While some political landscapes are notorious for their volatility, Nigeria's scene leans towards a much different kind of challenge - predictability born from self-interest. 

Here, success is not for the faint of heart, nor for those fueled by personal vendettas. It is a game of meticulous calculation, where alliances are forged in the fires of pragmatism, not fleeting emotions.

Yesterday, I watched a short video online of the APC party leader in Edo state, Jaret Tenebe, visiting Philip Shaibu, who was recently impeached by the Edo State House of Assembly. The whole situation with people getting upset about Tenebe's visit cracked me up.

To them, Shaibu has committed an unforgivable sin and should be banished to face a harsh existence alone. This explains clearly that most critics or those who called themselves party faithful do not understand the dynamics of politics. 

I, for one, predicted this outcome. It is surprising others didn't. Three years ago, I heard rumours that Shaibu and Obaseki were having disagreements and that Shaibu might leave the PDP. Some of their fans then came out strongly to dismiss the rumour and I was called all manner of names. Thankfully, within 24 hours, Shaibu appeared on live TV to clarify that there were issues but pledged his loyalty to the governor. However, as I expected, all is history today.

Observers that followed the mood after that incident, could sense an unspoken hostility between the two. So, it won't be a thing of surprise if Shaibu decides today to pitch tent with the APC. Know this: Politics is a survival series. 

Just a few months ago, Jaret Tenebe was publicly slamming Philip Shaibu, launching harsh accusations that could have landed Shaibu in jail, if he were an ordinary citizen like me. It was a dramatic public display.

Fast forward to today, and the tables have turned. Jaret was the first person to visit Shaibu after his shocking impeachment as Deputy Governor. He is offering words of support and solidarity, promising to walk along with him during this trying moment.

This sudden shift reveals the true nature of politics. This is all about strategy. With Edo State's 2024 elections approaching, Shaibu has become a valuable pawn in a complex political chess game.

If he takes the bait, his return could prove to be a significant obstacle for Obaseki. Shaibu's deep understanding of Obaseki, gained during their time as allies, could be a valuable asset to Oshiomole and the APC in Edo.

Those who are against Shaibu's return, misunderstand the political landscape. Shaibu retains significant influence, particularly at the grassroots level. It would be unwise for any politician or party to dismiss the idea of his return to his original home.